A method for modeling hybrid influence on government services using an agent-Based Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17721/ISTS.2025.9.47-53Keywords:
Hybrid warfare, agent-based modeling, fake news, digital security, behavioral loadAbstract
Background. In the context of hybrid warfare, the role of information influence on critical infrastructure is growing. Fake news can trigger waves of user behavioral activity that mimic DDoS attacks, overloading government digital services even without direct technical interference. This creates the need to model such scenarios considering both technical and socio-behavioral factors.
Methods. An agent-based model of hybrid influence is proposed, including users, bots, fake news sources, and protective mechanisms. The model is implemented using mathematical expressions and scenario simulation, including a baseline scenario, delayed response scenario, technical intervention scenario, and official rebuttal scenario. The analysis considers system load parameters, behavioral activation probability, and the system's response.
Results. It was found that user behavior alone can generate critical system load equivalent to a DDoS attack. The most effective scenario combined technical blocking and information rebuttal, reducing load to a stable level. Classic cybersecurity models often fail to account for delayed reactions or wave-like behavioral patterns, limiting their effectiveness in hybrid environments.
Conclusions. The proposed model enables not only simulation of hybrid influence but also evaluation of response tactics. It can be applied in CERT platforms, Red Team / Blue Team exercises, and early-warning systems. Further research may focus on adapting the model to real-world environments and developing automated response mechanisms to information threats.
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